All Predictions
Quantified assessments of major geopolitical events
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Active (164)
NUCLEAR RISQXhigh
US Air Force increases purchase of bunker-buster bombs after Iran nuclear strikes
Our Probability
85%
Target: Mar 15, 2026
GRID RISQXhigh
Oil prices decline amid Iran-US nuclear talks
Our Probability
85%
Target: Mar 6, 2026
IRAN RISQXmedium
US military strike on Iran within Q1 2026
Our Probability
78%
Target: Feb 27, 2026
IRAN RISQXhigh
Hezbollah launches cross-border military strikes on Israel within 60 days
Our Probability
85%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
IRAN RISQXmedium
US-Iran Tensions Flare Over Nuclear Program
Our Probability
65%
Target: Mar 5, 2026
IRAN RISQXmedium
Iranian protests exceed 100,000 participants in single event by Q2 2026
Our Probability
80%
Target: Feb 27, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXmedium
U.S. and Iran nuclear talks hinge on uranium enrichment issue
Our Probability
70%
Target: Mar 15, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXmedium
US and Iran nuclear talks face critical juncture over uranium enrichment
Our Probability
70%
Target: Mar 15, 2026
IRAN RISQXhigh
Iran nuclear facility damaged/destroyed within 60 days
Our Probability
83%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
IRAN RISQXmedium
Iranian Drone Incident Sparks Military Tensions
Our Probability
75%
Target: Mar 5, 2026
IRAN RISQXhigh
Iran to hold nuclear talks with the US on Friday
Our Probability
90%
Target: Mar 6, 2026
IRAN RISQXhigh
Iranian Foreign Minister Confirms Nuclear Talks with USA
Our Probability
90%
Target: Mar 8, 2026
IRAN RISQXhigh
Iran and USA Start Indirect Nuclear Talks
Our Probability
85%
Target: Mar 8, 2026
IRAN RISQXmedium
Iranian Drone Incident Triggers Military Retaliation
Our Probability
70%
Target: Mar 5, 2026
IRAN RISQXmedium
US and Iran Nuclear Talks Face Challenges
Our Probability
65%
Target: Mar 8, 2026
IRAN RISQXlow
Iranian Tanker Seized by US Authorities
Our Probability
60%
Target: Mar 8, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXhigh
Trump calls for new nuclear treaty post-Russia agreement
Our Probability
80%
Target: Mar 15, 2026
TAIWAN RISQXmedium
China military exercise disrupts Taiwan shipping within 60 days
Our Probability
57%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXmedium
GhostFin sonar suite secures first military procurement contract by Q2 2026
Our Probability
78%
Target: Feb 27, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXhigh
North Korea Prepares for Military Parade Ahead of Party Congress
Our Probability
85%
Target: Mar 4, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXhigh
Bundeswehr Opens Innovation Center to Foster Start-Up Collaboration
Our Probability
85%
Target: Mar 4, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXmedium
South Korea and Poland to Enhance Military Cooperation
Our Probability
75%
Target: Mar 4, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXmedium
New START treaty expiration leads to nuclear restraint concerns
Our Probability
75%
Target: Mar 15, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXhigh
US and South Korea Conduct Joint Military Exercises in April
Our Probability
90%
Target: Mar 19, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXmedium
Russian military intelligence official shot in Moscow
Our Probability
65%
Target: Mar 8, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXmedium
Russia to uphold nuclear weapons limits of expired START treaty
Our Probability
70%
Target: Mar 15, 2026
IRAN RISQXhigh
Iran regime loses control of major city within 60 days
Our Probability
81%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
IRAN RISQXhigh
Iranian rial loses over 30% of value against USD within 60 days
Our Probability
87%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
IRAN RISQXmedium
Iranian Protests Escalate into Civil Unrest
Our Probability
75%
Target: Mar 5, 2026
SHUTDOWN RISQXmedium
Government shutdown during active crisis (weather, military, health) within 60 days
Our Probability
72%
Target: Mar 31, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXlow
North Korea will conduct a missile test in defiance of international pressure
Our Probability
55%
Target: Mar 4, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXlow
Germany to increase defense spending amid rising security concerns
Our Probability
55%
Target: Mar 6, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXlow
US to increase military presence in the Middle East due to regional instability
Our Probability
55%
Target: Mar 6, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXmedium
US and South Korea Increase Joint Military Exercises Frequency in Q3 2026
Our Probability
70%
Target: Mar 19, 2026
IRAN RISQXmedium
Iranian Protests Intensify Amid Internet Censorship
Our Probability
70%
Target: Mar 5, 2026
IRAN RISQXlow
Iranian Ballistic Missile Test Conducted
Our Probability
55%
Target: Mar 8, 2026
IRAN RISQXlow
Iranian Foreign Minister Attacks German Politician
Our Probability
55%
Target: Mar 8, 2026
IRAN RISQXlow
Iranian Tanker Seized in Strait of Hormuz
Our Probability
55%
Target: Mar 8, 2026
IRAN RISQXlow
Iranian Foreign Minister Criticizes US Policy
Our Probability
55%
Target: Mar 8, 2026
IRAN RISQXlow
Iranian Tanker Seized Near Gulf Coast
Our Probability
55%
Target: Mar 8, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXmedium
China deploys Sharp Shark USV beyond territorial waters by end of Q1 2026
Our Probability
75%
Target: Feb 27, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXhigh
Philippine Navy commissions offshore patrol vessel for South China Sea by Q2 2026
Our Probability
82%
Target: Feb 27, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXhigh
Rocket Companies named defendant in federal lawsuit over lending practices by Q2 2026
Our Probability
85%
Target: Feb 27, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXhigh
US Air Force needs 500 next-gen fighters and bombers to counter China
Our Probability
90%
Target: Mar 15, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXhigh
China's maritime combat drone poised for global success
Our Probability
80%
Target: Mar 15, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXmedium
US and Russia-Ukraine negotiations show cautious progress
Our Probability
75%
Target: Mar 15, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXmedium
US and Russia negotiations see cautious progress post-START treaty
Our Probability
75%
Target: Mar 15, 2026
AI RISQXmedium
Government/military pauses AI deployment due to control concerns within 60 days
Our Probability
69%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
IRAN RISQXlow
North Korea may conduct a nuclear test in response to increased sanctions
Our Probability
55%
Target: Mar 4, 2026
IRAN RISQXmedium
US Military Forces Gather Near Iran Amid Nuclear Talks
Our Probability
75%
Target: Mar 8, 2026
SYSTEMIC RISQXmedium
India and the US will see an increase in bilateral trade due to recent tariff reductions
Our Probability
75%
Target: Mar 4, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXmedium
Indonesia signs TAIS-Qatar naval procurement deal by end of Q1 2026
Our Probability
78%
Target: Feb 27, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXhigh
Paris Naval Conference produces joint rearmament commitment by 3+ NATO navies in Q1 2026
Our Probability
85%
Target: Feb 27, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXmedium
Hellenic Air Force to receive new F-16V Block 72 fighters
Our Probability
80%
Target: Feb 27, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXmedium
Cloudflare quarterly revenue exceeds $500M in next earnings report
Our Probability
75%
Target: Feb 27, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXhigh
US Dollar Index (DXY) falls below 100 by end of Q1 2026
Our Probability
87%
Target: Feb 27, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXhigh
Samsung Heavy Industries announces vessel orders exceeding $3B total in Q1 2026
Our Probability
78%
Target: Feb 27, 2026
SUPPLY CHAIN RISQXhigh
EU-India trade agreement ratified by European Parliament by end of Q2 2026
Our Probability
82%
Target: Feb 27, 2026
GRID RISQXmedium
Middle East Oil Prices Rise Due to Escalating Tensions
Our Probability
75%
Target: Mar 5, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXhigh
DHS contracts Fortem for drone defense at World Cup venues
Our Probability
90%
Target: Mar 15, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXhigh
Pentagon seeks rapid deployment of counter-drone sensors
Our Probability
90%
Target: Mar 15, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXhigh
US Army to debut FPV Bumblebee V2 drone interceptor next month
Our Probability
90%
Target: Mar 15, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXhigh
USS Gerald Ford deployed to Middle East for extended period
Our Probability
85%
Target: Mar 15, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXhigh
Transatlantic tensions to be addressed at Munich Security Conference
Our Probability
80%
Target: Mar 15, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXhigh
US deploys additional troops to Nigeria for security assistance
Our Probability
80%
Target: Mar 15, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXmedium
Turkish Aerospace to finalize talks with Saudi Arabia for KAAN fighter program
Our Probability
75%
Target: Mar 15, 2026
SYSTEMIC RISQXlow
The United States will increase tariffs on Chinese goods to address trade imbalances
Our Probability
55%
Target: Mar 4, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXlow
Kongsberg Maritime secures contract for Royal Norwegian Navy vessels
Our Probability
68%
Target: Feb 27, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXmedium
Royal Norwegian Navy awards standardized vessel construction contract by Q2 2026
Our Probability
72%
Target: Feb 27, 2026
SUPPLY CHAIN RISQXmedium
Infrastructure incident causes deaths attributable to deferred maintenance within 60 days
Our Probability
73%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
SUPPLY CHAIN RISQXmedium
Federal emergency declared with FEMA response exceeding 72-hour delay within 60 days
Our Probability
71%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
SUPPLY CHAIN RISQXmedium
Supply chain breakdown delays critical goods 2+ weeks within 60 days
Our Probability
69%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
SUPPLY CHAIN RISQXmedium
Major grid failure (>24hr, >500k affected) within 60 days
Our Probability
67%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
SYSTEMIC RISQXmedium
Federal agency or Fortune 500 company suffers operational outage exceeding 24 hours within 60 days
Our Probability
66%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
TAIWAN RISQXmedium
China restricts rare earth or semiconductor material exports in retaliation to US policy within 60 days
Our Probability
63%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
SHUTDOWN RISQXmedium
Federal workforce reduction exceeds 50,000 positions within 60 days of shutdown
Our Probability
74%
Target: Mar 31, 2026
SHUTDOWN RISQXmedium
Debt ceiling breach or technical default within 60 days
Our Probability
70%
Target: Mar 31, 2026
SHUTDOWN RISQXmedium
Government shutdown reduces TSA or FDA staffing below 80% operational capacity within 60 days
Our Probability
68%
Target: Mar 31, 2026
SHUTDOWN RISQXmedium
Federal government partial or full shutdown lasting >7 days within 60 days
Our Probability
66%
Target: Mar 31, 2026
TAIWAN RISQXmedium
US announces new semiconductor export restrictions targeting China within 60 days
Our Probability
61%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
GRID RISQXmedium
Federal emergency response fails visibly within 60 days
Our Probability
71%
Target: Apr 2, 2026
SYSTEMIC RISQXmedium
Major institution (federal agency, major bank, critical org) suffers visible failure within 60 days
Our Probability
66%
Target: Apr 2, 2026
TAIWAN RISQXmedium
China economic retaliation affecting tech supply within 60 days
Our Probability
63%
Target: Apr 2, 2026
SHUTDOWN RISQXmedium
Mass federal employee resignation wave triggered by shutdown uncertainty within 60 days
Our Probability
74%
Target: Apr 2, 2026
SHUTDOWN RISQXmedium
Shutdown causes visible disruption to critical services (TSA, FDA, etc.) within 60 days
Our Probability
68%
Target: Apr 2, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXmedium
US to impose sanctions on Chinese companies involved in human rights abuses
Our Probability
70%
Target: Mar 6, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXlow
EU to launch space program for satellite navigation and security
Our Probability
60%
Target: Mar 6, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXlow
EU to establish joint cyber defense initiative with NATO allies
Our Probability
60%
Target: Mar 6, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXlow
EU to launch new satellite navigation system independent of GPS
Our Probability
60%
Target: Mar 6, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXlow
US to launch new space exploration mission by NASA
Our Probability
55%
Target: Mar 6, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXmedium
FBI director announces Benghazi suspect custody
Our Probability
65%
Target: Mar 8, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXmedium
Belgium orders additional F-35 jets for European defense needs
Our Probability
70%
Target: Mar 15, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXmedium
Philippines faces political challenges in F-16 procurement
Our Probability
70%
Target: Mar 15, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXhigh
US President Trump Prepares Military Response Against Iran
Our Probability
80%
Target: Mar 4, 2026
AI RISQXhigh
Amazon will discontinue its cashier-less convenience store concept in the US
Our Probability
85%
Target: Feb 27, 2026
GRID RISQXhigh
German Bundestag passes new energy legislation reducing gas dependency in Q1 2026
Our Probability
79%
Target: Feb 27, 2026
EUROPE RISQXmedium
European fish importers face delays due to new digital system failures in Q1 2026
Our Probability
85%
Target: Feb 27, 2026
EUROPE RISQXmedium
Swiss franc reaches decade high due to market uncertainty in Q1 2026
Our Probability
90%
Target: Feb 27, 2026
EUROPE RISQXmedium
3+ EU nations announce defense budget increases exceeding 5% for 2026 in Q1
Our Probability
85%
Target: Feb 27, 2026
EUROPE RISQXmedium
European natural gas price (TTF) exceeds EUR 50/MWh in Q1 2026
Our Probability
80%
Target: Feb 27, 2026
AI RISQXhigh
AI-driven infrastructure failure (grid, logistics, financial) within 60 days
Our Probability
75%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
AI RISQXhigh
LG AI Lab Secures Patent for Agentic AI Supporting Scientific Research
Our Probability
90%
Target: Mar 4, 2026
AI RISQXhigh
Palantir Sees Significant Sales Growth Driven by US Government Contracts
Our Probability
90%
Target: Mar 4, 2026
AI RISQXhigh
Hyundai Mobis Forms Global Alliance for Next-Gen Vehicle Display Technology
Our Probability
80%
Target: Mar 4, 2026
AI RISQXhigh
Samsung unveils new AI-powered air conditioners
Our Probability
90%
Target: Mar 6, 2026
GRID RISQXhigh
Reduced effectiveness of antibiotics due to overuse and misuse
Our Probability
90%
Target: Mar 17, 2026
GRID RISQXhigh
Increased awareness and reporting of H5N1 bird flu infections globally
Our Probability
90%
Target: Mar 17, 2026
GRID RISQXhigh
Continued efforts towards One Health approach in public health initiatives
Our Probability
90%
Target: Mar 17, 2026
GRID RISQXhigh
Continued efforts towards reducing drug overdose deaths through public health initiatives
Our Probability
90%
Target: Mar 17, 2026
GRID RISQXhigh
Continued efforts towards reducing antibiotic resistance through stewardship programs
Our Probability
90%
Target: Mar 17, 2026
GRID RISQXhigh
Continued efforts towards global measles vaccination campaigns
Our Probability
85%
Target: Mar 17, 2026
GRID RISQXhigh
Increased focus on food safety alerts due to multi-state outbreaks
Our Probability
85%
Target: Mar 17, 2026
GRID RISQXhigh
Increased focus on the role of pharmacogenetics in personalized medicine
Our Probability
85%
Target: Mar 17, 2026
GRID RISQXhigh
Continued efforts towards reducing foodborne illness through improved food safety practices
Our Probability
85%
Target: Mar 17, 2026
GRID RISQXhigh
Continued exploration of pharmacogenetics and personalized medicine
Our Probability
80%
Target: Mar 17, 2026
GRID RISQXhigh
Continued research into the effects of non-antibiotic drugs on gut microbiota
Our Probability
80%
Target: Mar 17, 2026
GRID RISQXmedium
Increase in antibiotic resistance due to non-antibiotic drug effects on gut bacteria
Our Probability
75%
Target: Mar 17, 2026
GRID RISQXmedium
Increased awareness and regulation of non-antibiotic drugs' impact on gut microbiota
Our Probability
75%
Target: Mar 17, 2026
AI RISQXhigh
Increased focus on digital transformation in African healthcare systems
Our Probability
85%
Target: Mar 17, 2026
AI RISQXhigh
Increased focus on digital transformation in healthcare delivery
Our Probability
85%
Target: Mar 17, 2026
AI RISQXhigh
Increased use of digital health solutions for managing non-communicable diseases in children
Our Probability
80%
Target: Mar 17, 2026
AI RISQXhigh
Growing use of digital health tools for monitoring infectious diseases like mpox
Our Probability
80%
Target: Mar 17, 2026
AI RISQXhigh
Increased use of digital health solutions for managing infectious disease outbreaks
Our Probability
80%
Target: Mar 17, 2026
AI RISQXhigh
Meta expands Nvidia partnership for AI data centers
Our Probability
85%
Target: Mar 19, 2026
AI RISQXhigh
Meta's expansion with Nvidia for AI data centers enhances technology capabilities
Our Probability
85%
Target: Mar 19, 2026
AI RISQXhigh
Nvidia secures major deal with Meta for AI chips
Our Probability
80%
Target: Mar 19, 2026
AI RISQXhigh
Nvidia's AI chip deal with Meta solidifies technology leadership
Our Probability
80%
Target: Mar 19, 2026
EUROPE RISQXmedium
Middle Eastern art auction sales at major houses exceed $50M in Q2 2026
Our Probability
70%
Target: Feb 27, 2026
SYSTEMIC RISQXmedium
Official post-incident report cites inter-agency coordination failure within 60 days
Our Probability
72%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
SYSTEMIC RISQXmedium
US public health system declares emergency in major metro area within 60 days
Our Probability
70%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
SYSTEMIC RISQXmedium
Government shutdown or funding crisis within 60 days
Our Probability
68%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
TAIWAN RISQXmedium
TSMC production disruption (any cause) within 60 days
Our Probability
59%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
SYSTEMIC RISQXmedium
Major insurer delays claims processing 30+ days for 100K+ policyholders within 60 days
Our Probability
74%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
SYSTEMIC RISQXmedium
Pharmaceutical supply chain failure affects >1M patients within 60 days
Our Probability
72%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
SYSTEMIC RISQXmedium
Weather/grid event mortality exceeds official projections by >50% within 60 days
Our Probability
68%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
SYSTEMIC RISQXmedium
Major metro hospital system diverts ambulances or declares crisis capacity within 60 days
Our Probability
66%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
AI RISQXmedium
Corporation admits inability to explain consequential AI decision within 60 days
Our Probability
73%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
AI RISQXmedium
AI-generated content triggers real-world incident (market, political, physical) within 60 days
Our Probability
71%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
AI RISQXmedium
Major AI system error causes >$100M financial/operational damage within 60 days
Our Probability
67%
Target: Mar 29, 2026
SYSTEMIC RISQXmedium
Insurance/Medicare system buckles under claims surge within 60 days
Our Probability
74%
Target: Apr 2, 2026
SYSTEMIC RISQXmedium
Coordination failure between agencies worsens crisis response within 60 days
Our Probability
72%
Target: Apr 2, 2026
SYSTEMIC RISQXmedium
Public health or safety system fails with visible consequences within 60 days
Our Probability
70%
Target: Apr 2, 2026
SYSTEMIC RISQXmedium
Healthcare system in major metro visibly fails during surge within 60 days
Our Probability
66%
Target: Apr 2, 2026
TAIWAN RISQXmedium
US semiconductor policy escalation within 60 days
Our Probability
61%
Target: Apr 2, 2026
GRID RISQXlow
Devon Energy Corp. may see increased competition after acquiring Coterra Energy Inc.
Our Probability
60%
Target: Mar 4, 2026
AI RISQXlow
Alphabet Inc. may see continued growth driven by Waymo's expansion and tech dominance
Our Probability
60%
Target: Mar 4, 2026
AI RISQXlow
European Union will impose stricter regulations on artificial intelligence due to privacy concerns
Our Probability
55%
Target: Mar 4, 2026
AI RISQXlow
European Union will strengthen data protection laws in response to AI advancements
Our Probability
55%
Target: Mar 4, 2026
GRID RISQXlow
EU to introduce carbon border tax on imports from non-EU countries
Our Probability
60%
Target: Mar 6, 2026
AI RISQXlow
EU to impose stricter regulations on artificial intelligence
Our Probability
60%
Target: Mar 6, 2026
AI RISQXlow
Musk acquires xAI for SpaceX funding
Our Probability
60%
Target: Mar 8, 2026
GRID RISQXlow
Hudson Tunnel project faces funding challenges, impacting infrastructure development
Our Probability
55%
Target: Mar 8, 2026
GRID RISQXmedium
Increased focus on global health reforms due to funding cuts
Our Probability
70%
Target: Mar 17, 2026
GRID RISQXmedium
Increased scrutiny on the safety and efficacy of food assistance programs like SNAP
Our Probability
70%
Target: Mar 17, 2026
SYSTEMIC RISQXmedium
US and South Korea Sign New Defense Agreement in Q2 2026
Our Probability
70%
Target: Mar 19, 2026
SYSTEMIC RISQXlow
US Imposes Sanctions on North Korean Officials Over Human Rights Violations
Our Probability
55%
Target: Mar 19, 2026
SYSTEMIC RISQXlow
Iran Nuclear Talks Reach a Standstill in April
Our Probability
55%
Target: Mar 19, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXlow
India will increase its military spending to counter China’s influence in South Asia
Our Probability
55%
Target: Mar 4, 2026
IRAN RISQXhigh
Rial hyperinflation triggers government crisis within 60 days
Our Probability
87%
Target: Apr 2, 2026
IRAN RISQXhigh
Hezbollah enters/declines conflict within 60 days
Our Probability
85%
Target: Apr 2, 2026
NUCLEAR RISQXmedium
UnitedHealth reports quarterly revenue decline exceeding 5% YoY in next earnings
Our Probability
78%
Target: Feb 27, 2026
SYSTEMIC RISQXlow
India will deepen economic ties with the United States to counterbalance China's influence
Our Probability
55%
Target: Mar 4, 2026
GRID RISQXmedium
Growing recognition of the importance of medical neutrality during protests and conflicts
Our Probability
75%
Target: Mar 17, 2026
SYSTEMIC RISQXlow
Trump is Europe’s best enemy yet
Our Probability
55%
Target: Mar 7, 2026